[headlines] Data analysis suggests over 60,000 people killed in Syria conflict

GENEVA (2 January 2013) – An exhaustive analysis carried out by data specialists on behalf of the UN Human Rights Office has led to the compilation of a list of 59,648 individuals reported killed in Syria between 15 March 2011 and 30 November 2012, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said on Wednesday.

“Given there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013,” Pillay said. “The number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking.”

The preliminary analysis, which took five months to complete, was conducted using a combined list of 147,349 reported killings, fully identified by the first and last name of the victim, as well as the date and location of the death. Any reported killing that did not include at least these four elements was excluded from the list, which was compiled using datasets from seven different sources, including the Government.*

Each reported death was compared to all the other reported deaths in order to identify duplicates. The analysis used manual classifications and a data mining technique called an ‘alternating decision tree’ to identify the duplicate records. After duplicates were removed, the combined dataset was reduced to 59,648 unique records of conflict-related deaths as of 30 November 2012.

“Although this is the most detailed and wide-ranging analysis of casualty figures so far, this is by no means a definitive figure,” the High Commissioner said. “We have not been able to verify the circumstances of each and every death, partly because of the nature of the conflict and partly because we have not been allowed inside Syria since the unrest began in March 2011. Once there is peace in Syria, further investigations will be necessary to discover precisely how many people have died, and in what circumstances, and who was responsible for all the crimes that have been committed. This analysis provides a very useful basis upon which future investigations can be built to enhance accountability and provide justice and reparations to victims’ families.”

“This massive loss of life could have been avoided if the Syrian government had chosen to take a different path than one of ruthless suppression of what were initially peaceful and legitimate protests by unarmed civilians,” Pillay said. “As the situation has continued to degenerate, increasing numbers have also been killed by anti-government armed groups, and there has been a proliferation of serious crimes including war crimes, and -- most probably -- crimes against humanity, by both sides. Cities, towns and villages have been, and are continuing to be, devastated by aerial attacks, shelling, tank fire, bomb attacks and street-to-street fighting. In addition, the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict, highlighted in the recent update by the independent international Commission of Inquiry on Syria, means a swift end to the conflict will be all the more difficult to accomplish.”

The analysts noted that 60,000 is likely to be an underestimate of the actual number of deaths, given that reports containing insufficient information were excluded from the list, and that a significant number of killings may not have been documented at all by any of the seven sources. The recording and collection of accurate and reliable data has grown increasingly challenging due to the conflict raging in many parts of the country.

The analysis -- which the High Commissioner stressed is “a work in progress, not a final product” -- shows a steady increase in the average number of documented deaths per month since the beginning of the conflict, from around 1,000 per month in the summer of 2011 to an average of more than 5,000 per month since July 2012. The greatest number of reported killings have occurred in Homs (12,560), rural Damascus (10,862) and Idlib (7,686), followed by Aleppo (6,188), Daraa (6,034) and Hama (5,080).

Over 76% of the victims documented so far are male, while 7.5% are female, according to the analysis. The gender of the victim is not clear in 16.4 percent of cases. The analysis was not able to differentiate clearly between combatants and non-combatants.

“While many details remain unclear, there can be no justification for the massive scale of the killing highlighted by this analysis,” the High Commissioner said. “Unless there is a quick resolution to the conflict, I fear thousands more will die or suffer terrible injuries as a result of those who harbour the obstinate belief that something can be achieved by more bloodshed, more torture and more mindless destruction. Those people carrying out these serious crimes should understand that they will one day be brought to justice. The case against them will only be strengthened by adding more crimes to those already committed.”

“The failure of the international community, in particular the Security Council, to take concrete actions to stop the blood-letting, shames us all,” Pillay said. “For almost two years now, my staff and the staff of the independent Commission of Inquiry have been interviewing Syrians inside and outside the country, listening to their stories and gathering evidence. We have been repeatedly asked: ‘Where is the international community? Why aren’t you acting to stop this slaughter?’ We have no satisfactory answer to those questions. Collectively, we have fiddled at the edges while Syria burns.”

The High Commissioner also called for serious preparations to restore law and order when the conflict comes to a halt. “We must not compound the existing disaster by failing to prepare for the inevitable – and very dangerous – instability that will occur when the conflict ends,” she said. “Serious planning needs to get under way immediately, not just to provide humanitarian aid to all those who need it, but to protect all Syrian citizens from extra-judicial reprisals and acts of revenge and discrimination. Investment in a massive stabilization effort will cost far less than decades of instability and lawlessness such as those that have afflicted Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and several other states where the transition from dictatorship and conflict to democracy was given insufficient support.”
United Nations Press release

headlines] Syria: UN-Arab League envoy calls for transitional government with full powers

27 December 2012 – Calling for “real change” in Syria, the Joint Special Representative of the United Nations and the League of Arab States for the war-torn country, Lakhdar Brahimi, said today a Syrian transitional government with full executive powers “must be” created until elections can be held.

Speaking in Damascus, Mr. Brahimi also elaborated on the idea of deploying an international peacekeeping force to the country to monitor a hoped-for peace deal that would end violence that has killed tens of thousands of Syrians.

“The change required is not cosmetic,” Mr. Brahimi told journalists in the Syrian capital at the end of a five-day trip to the country, during which he met with President Bashar al-Assad.

“Syria and the Syrian people need, want and look forward to real change. And the meaning of this is clear to all,” he added.

Mr. Brahimi’s call reflects a plan that emerged six months ago from an international meeting in Geneva on Syria for the establishment of a national unity government for the country, which has been gripped by violence since protests that began against Mr. al-Assad 21 months ago turned into a revolt amid a crackdown by authorities.

Since the unveiling of the so-called “Geneva communiqué,” forces opposed to Mr. Assad have gained territory as well as a number of military installations in Syria’s north, media reports say. Anti-Assad forces are also reported to be expanding their presence in Damascus.

Mr. Brahimi said that a failure by the Syrians themselves to find a solution to the conflict meant that the international community needed to step up its collective efforts to help them.

“The solution is in bringing closer Syrian points of views,” he said. “If the Syrians are incapable of doing this on their own, then the international community, their neighbours and everyone else must assist them in doing so, and assist them in doing good.”

The UN-Arab league envoy will be in Moscow this Saturday for talks, and said he plans to hold additional meetings with United States and Russian officials after two earlier rounds of talks with top officials of those countries earlier this month.

“These two countries have influence and a global responsibility, which qualifies them to help in searching for solutions that we look forward to in Syria,” Mr. Brahimi said.

The official noted that statistics no longer conveyed the full horror of what was unfolding in the Syria.

“The truth is, when one mentions figures, they appear cold,” he said. “When one says there are (four) million internally displaced (people), what does it mean?”

Mr. Brahimi warned that current projections placed the number of people driven by the conflict to other countries in the region as refugees would exceed one million by the middle of next year, up from half a million registered refugees now.

“The situation is bad and is worsening (and) the Syrian people are suffering unbearably…” he said. “Those who can have mercy on the Syrian people should do so.”

In calling for a transition government, the Joint Special Representative signalled that there could be no compromise over its level of powers.

“What must be established is a government with full executive powers…” he said. “All the powers of government should be with this government.”

While he also said that the transitional period should not be allowed to lead to the collapse of the state or its institutions, he left open the possibility that the eventual elections could be for a reformed leadership structure.

“These elections will be presidential if it is agreed that the system will remain presidential, as is currently the case, or parliamentary elections if there is agreement that the system in Syria is to be changed to a parliamentary system,” Mr. Brahimi said.

The envoy said peacekeepers were needed to provide “strong observation” of a peace deal, but insisted that such a deployment would not constitute an international occupation of the country.

“These are not foreign forces; they only come with the agreement of the parties,” he said. “When we reach a stage of speaking about peacekeeping forces, it means that there is an agreement, and, thankfully, the parties have agreed that they need these forces.”

Mr. Brahimi’s talks in Syria marked his third visit to the country since becoming the international Syria envoy in August. He said he told not only Mr. Assad, but also opposition groups he met both “inside and outside” the country, of his proposals for peace.

“The talks are still ongoing,” he said, adding that Syrians have to resolve their differences, but with “a lot of help from the outside.”

Mr. Brahimi has also been engaged in a series of other meetings in the region and elsewhere as part of his efforts to bring about a negotiated, political solution to end to the fighting in Syria.

He has previously stated that a peace process could be based on the Geneva communiqué, which was issued after a meeting in the Swiss city of the so-called Action Group for Syria in late June and which lays out key steps in a process to end the violence in Syria.

Amongst other items, the Geneva communiqué called for the establishment of a transitional governing body, with full executive powers and made up by members of the present Government and the opposition and other groups, as part of agreed principles and guidelines for a Syrian-led political transition.

The Action Group is made up of the Secretaries-General of the UN and the Arab League; the Foreign Ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – as well as the Turkish Foreign Minister; the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; and the Foreign Ministers of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, in their respective roles related to the Arab League.
UN News Service